Fri, Jan 23, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 13 | 19 | 010 | 222 |
| DAL | 110 | 15 | 14 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 11:30STLDalibor DvorskyPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:04STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jake Neighbours, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:44DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 19:00DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:54STLPavel Buchnevich: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:01DALWyatt Johnston: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:23DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 6:19STLJimmy Snuggerud: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:57STLPhilip Broberg: Interference2 min
- P2 16:38STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 18:51STLRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:00DALNils Lundkvist: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours9:52
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Joseph – Dvorsky – Stenberg8:00
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Berggren – Snuggerud9:06
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Berggren – Snuggerud – Dvorsky2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Mailloux10:56
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker10:07
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Hintz – Robertson12:02
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Benn – Bourque – Hryckowian6:54
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bäck6:31
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Steel – Johnston8:29
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Lundkvist3:19
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen9:12
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Heiskanen – Harley4:28
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).