Sat, Jan 24, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 210 | 015 | 18 | 11 | 434 |
| MIN | 15 | 110 | 16 | 00 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:17MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:20FLABrad MarchandPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:33MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 12:09MINMatt BoldySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 13:11FLASam BennettPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 3:00FLABrad MarchandGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:22MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:59FLAA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:21MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:46MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:47FLAA.J. Greer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:49FLABrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:01MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:01FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:26FLAEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P2 16:26MINQuinn Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:43MINNico Sturm: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:18FLAEetu Luostarinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:32MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:11FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:00
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell7:40
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – Greer – Tkachuk5:23
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kunin – Samoskevich – Vilmanis2:49
xG 0.06–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Mikkola2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Bjornfot5:53
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling11:21
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy4:46
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:37
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Trenin – Sturm2:33
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Yurov7:25
xG 0.09–0.58 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hughes – Faber14:59
xG 0.73–0.84 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Hunt – Jiricek6:30
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton8:52
xG 0.04–0.45 (9%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).