Sun, Jan 25, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 313 | 04 | 325 |
| VAN | 08 | 010 | 214 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:24PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Tommy Novak, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:41PITBen KindelAssists: Ryan Shea, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 17:22PITBen KindelGWGAssists: Justin Brazeau, Brett Kulak · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 6:29VANJake DeBruskAssists: Elias Pettersson, Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 14:00VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Liam Ohgren, Filip Hronek · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 1:57PITAnthony Mantha: Elbowing2 min
- P3 0:00PITBryan Rust: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Novak – Chinakhov13:27
xG 1.06–0.48 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel9:34
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:00
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell13:44
xG 0.64–0.86 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Kulak14:11
xG 1.51–0.65 (70%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Letang – Shea3:29
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Kulak2:31
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Garland – Ohgren12:25
xG 0.77–0.72 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson12:52
xG 0.92–0.87 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Hoglander – Sasson7:11
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Boeser – Chytil – O'Connor14:02
xG 0.54–0.98 (35%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Pettersson4:06
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Hronek – Buium3:11
xG 0.28–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Joseph3:27
xG 0.14–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).