Mon, Jan 26, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 4, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 213 | 116 | 441 |
| EDM | 112 | 415 | 25 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24ANAMikael GranlundPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Cutter Gauthier · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 17:14EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 0:55ANAAlex KillornAssists: Ryan Poehling, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 4:36EDMSpencer StastneyAssists: Ty Emberson, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 6:28EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 7:34EDMDarnell NurseUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 8:25EDMMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Matt Savoie · Snap, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 13:41ANAMikael GranlundPPAssists: Beckett Sennecke · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 13:38ANAMikael GranlundPPAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 18:12EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–6
- P3 19:49EDMMattias EkholmENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:39EDMJack Roslovic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:37ANAJansen Harkins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:58ANARyan Strome: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 18:25EDMMatt Savoie: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:18ANAJacob Trouba: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:08EDMTy Emberson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:43EDMMatt Savoie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Granlund – Sennecke12:15
xG 1.11–0.33 (77%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Harkins2:34
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Viel – Poehling – Gauthier6:14
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – LaCombe12:12
xG 1.23–0.63 (66%)attempts 23–11goals 1–1
- Helleson – Mintyukov9:09
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Gudas – Zellweger9:36
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Savoie – Samanski5:34
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:17
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin9:32
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Frederic6:19
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman16:28
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Emberson – Stastney11:02
xG 0.16–0.44 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard14:26
xG 0.62–1.18 (35%)attempts 11–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).