Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Utah Mammoth 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 17 | 15 | 28 | 420 |
| FLA | 011 | 210 | 19 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46UTANick SchmaltzSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:52FLASandis VilmanisUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:46UTASean DurziAssists: Jack McBain, Michael Carcone · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 9:55FLACole SchwindtUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 11:05UTAMikhail SergachevAssists: Sean Durzi · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:04UTABarrett HaytonENGWGAssists: Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
- P3 19:44FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:55UTABrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:24UTANate Schmidt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:37FLAA.J. Greer: Holding2 min
- P2 15:32UTAClayton Keller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:29FLAAnton Lundell: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:00UTAMichael Carcone: Interference2 min
- P3 13:48FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52UTABarrett Hayton: Interference2 min
- P3 13:52FLAEvan Rodrigues: Embellishment2 min
- P3 17:51UTANick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:51FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Yamamoto – McBain8:11
xG 0.41–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev5:53
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hayton – Peterka – But9:29
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller9:49
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Durzi13:01
xG 0.79–0.18 (81%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Marino12:56
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone8:50
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Schwindt – Vilmanis2:17
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Vilmanis4:09
xG 0.00–0.00 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Greer – Schwindt – Samoskevich2:27
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:29
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:22
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 16–7goals 0–2
- Mikkola – Balinskis13:24
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Bjornfot11:10
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).