Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 39 | 16 | 424 |
| STL | 09 | 06 | 311 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:20DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:00DALMatt DucheneAssists: Thomas Harley, Sam Steel · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 18:06DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 3:15STLRobby FabbriAssists: Justin Faulk, Tyler Tucker · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 6:22STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Dalibor Dvorsky · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 15:50STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 18:53DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:48DALMatt Duchene: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:06STLTyler Tucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:11STLRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:25DALMavrik Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:58STLDalibor Dvorsky: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:15DALMavrik Bourque: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bourque won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Steel8:28
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian10:41
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque9:53
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bäck7:18
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley14:10
xG 0.99–0.47 (68%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen17:26
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Capobianco8:00
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours3:00
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Dvorsky3:58
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Fabbri – Joseph – Dvorsky5:50
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Berggren – Snuggerud8:29
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker9:43
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Fowler – Mailloux10:18
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Faulk – Fowler3:58
xG 0.06–0.25 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).