Wed, Jan 28, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 06 | 214 | 327 |
| CBJ | 27 | 116 | 28 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 9:03PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Cam York, Noah Juulsen · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:40CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 1:58CBJErik GudbransonAssists: Cole Sillinger, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 4:08PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:14PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 16:32CBJSean MonahanGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 18:54CBJMathieu OlivierENAssists: Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:50PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:20CBJCole Sillinger: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:12PHIMatvei Michkov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:56CBJDmitri Voronkov: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:42PHIChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:57CBJMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:04CBJKent Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:48CBJErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Barkey8:31
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras10:48
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
- Pederson – Grundstrom – Grebenkin5:43
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Michkov7:14
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – York2:52
xG 0.30–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale5:35
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Drysdale5:08
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Marchenko – Fantilli11:55
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger9:06
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Johnson9:38
xG 0.27–0.36 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Wood – Lundeström – Voronkov5:37
xG 0.01–0.15 (8%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk13:03
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski14:19
xG 0.75–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–10goals 2–2
- Gudbranson – Zamula10:47
xG 0.13–0.28 (33%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).