Wed, Jan 28, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 16 | 03 | 216 |
| NYI | 214 | 314 | 08 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59NYIOndrej PalatPPAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:10NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 18:04NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:12NYIMathew BarzalPPGWGAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:59NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Marc Gatcomb, Kyle MacLean · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 15:42NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Noah Laba, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 19:12NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Adam Pelech, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.25 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:33NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:42NYIBo Horvat: Interference2 min
- P1 13:02NYRVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:33NYIJonathan Drouin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:41NYRSam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41NYRSam Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:41NYRMatt Rempe: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:28NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Perreault14:23
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Rempe8:07
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:33
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Othmann – Laba11:40
xG 0.25–0.95 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Robertson15:54
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
- Vaakanainen – Morrow10:28
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider18:38
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Holmstrom11:17
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Duclair – Drouin – Barzal12:17
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb9:45
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Horvat – Heineman10:47
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo13:17
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Pulock – Schaefer15:17
xG 0.91–0.65 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Soucy13:07
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).