Thu, Jan 29, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 06 | 15 | 220 |
| PIT | 18 | 423 | 114 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Ryan Greene, Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:24PITConnor DewarAssists: Noel Acciari, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 5:54PITBen KindelAssists: Anthony Mantha, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:30PITEgor ChinakhovGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 16:01PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Ben Kindel, Ryan Shea · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 19:30PITRyan SheaAssists: Ilya Solovyov, Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 13:59PITConnor DewarAssists: Noel Acciari, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 14:31CHIConnor BedardAssists: Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:11PITBen Kindel: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:03PITTommy Novak: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:17PITBen Kindel: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:17CHIFrank Nazar: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:10PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:10CHIWyatt Kaiser: Embellishment2 min
- P2 11:02CHIOliver Moore: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Dach – Greene2:20
xG 0.50–0.06 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Donato – Dach – Moore3:00
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Nazar – Bedard9:19
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Burakovsky – Greene – Moore4:59
xG 0.02–0.69 (3%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Grzelcyk16:26
xG 0.68–1.37 (33%)attempts 11–31goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Crevier15:56
xG 0.08–0.80 (9%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Kaiser – Levshunov13:52
xG 0.66–2.09 (24%)attempts 11–25goals 0–5
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McGroarty – Kindel9:15
xG 1.05–0.16 (87%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte10:00
xG 1.02–0.21 (83%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov11:12
xG 0.82–0.60 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rakell – Brazeau10:41
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShea – Solovyov14:36
xG 1.50–0.63 (70%)attempts 22–12goals 3–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon15:44
xG 1.15–0.37 (76%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Letang – Kulak17:08
xG 0.83–0.59 (58%)attempts 22–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).