Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 014 | 07 | 19 | 130 |
| MIN | 23 | 05 | 216 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43MINDanila YurovAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Daemon Hunt · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:37MINVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Jake Middleton, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 5:49CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 17:17MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 17:45MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Brock Faber, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:45CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:45MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:05MINBrock Faber: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:20MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:05MINQuinn Hughes: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:53CGYMartin Pospisil: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:07CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary10:02
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Gridin10:35
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato11:58
xG 0.30–0.29 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Farabee – Klapka7:34
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitecloud – Bahl19:08
xG 0.79–0.61 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Hanley – Brzustewicz11:07
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hinostroza – Sturm5:31
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:51
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov11:13
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:54
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hunt – Jiricek8:03
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Hughes – Faber17:48
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Hughes – Jiricek2:25
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).