Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 38 | 09 | 04 | 00 | 321 |
| EDM | 012 | 08 | 310 | 12 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26SJSCollin GrafAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 1:35SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: William Eklund · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 11:40SJSMichael MisaAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Sam Dickinson · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 1:34EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 16:55EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:01EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:06EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:41EDMCurtis Lazar: Interference2 min
- P1 12:41SJSZack Ostapchuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:39EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:41EDMMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:01SJSMario Ferraro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Eklund – Misa8:03
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 2–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk5:00
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf12:43
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Regenda8:45
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:28
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg12:38
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Orlov – Liljegren3:14
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Kapanen – McDavid4:54
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Frederic6:12
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin6:21
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:37
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmberson – Stastney10:38
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard16:32
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Nurse – Walman17:18
xG 0.51–0.58 (46%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).