Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 07 | 25 | 221 |
| FLA | 113 | 07 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:40FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 8:34WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 15:46WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:24WPGCole Koepke: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 7:21FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:32FLASandis Vilmanis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:35WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:21FLASandis Vilmanis: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:51FLAUvis Balinskis: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:00FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti7:58
xG 0.59–0.11 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Scheifele – Connor5:52
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Barron – Koepke4:47
xG 0.07–0.12 (39%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Niederreiter – Namestnikov7:27
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:39
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Samberg – Salomonsson10:42
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Stanley – Samberg2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Schwindt – Vilmanis8:19
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kunin – Boqvist – Samoskevich7:20
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Luostarinen10:56
xG 0.04–0.35 (11%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:07
xG 0.18–0.60 (23%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mikkola – Balinskis13:55
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Petry – Bjornfot10:37
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling16:01
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).