Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 29 | 14 | 523 |
| STL | 18 | 29 | 016 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dalibor Dvorsky · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:48CBJIsac LundeströmAssists: Boone Jenner, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 12:54CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Kent Johnson, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 3:15STLJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Pius Suter, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 8:30CBJKent JohnsonPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Dmitri Voronkov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 13:35STLTyler TuckerAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P2 16:01CBJDamon SeversonGWGAssists: Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:30CBJMason MarchmentENAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:41CBJCole Sillinger: Holding2 min
- P1 13:50STLNick Bjugstad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:31CBJDmitri Voronkov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:06STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:41CBJMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:09CBJAdam Fantilli: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Walker
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Wood – Lundeström6:29
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Monahan – Voronkov – Johnson6:56
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli13:44
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger9:52
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 12–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski16:48
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk14:33
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Zamula11:24
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Fabbri – Toropchenko4:25
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Dvorsky7:40
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Fabbri – Suter3:07
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Suter – Berggren6:23
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fowler2:20
xG 0.41–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Parayko – Broberg13:56
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Faulk – Tucker10:22
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).