Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Dallas Stars 3, Utah Mammoth 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 310 | 011 | 011 | 332 |
| UTA | 15 | 05 | 14 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11DALThomas HarleyPPAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:42DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 10:23UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: JJ Peterka, John Marino · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 16:37DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 6:41UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: JJ Peterka, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:48UTASean Durzi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:38UTAJack McBain: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 10:23DALAdam Erne: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 13:04DALMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:37UTAJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:37DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:01UTANate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:13UTANate Schmidt: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque8:39
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian9:30
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Faksa – Erne – Bäck6:49
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel8:59
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Capobianco9:36
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:48
xG 0.37–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:20
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestYamamoto – Hayton – Peterka11:06
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Carcone – McBain – Guenther7:56
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Tanev – But7:22
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller8:36
xG 0.15–0.85 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeSimone10:53
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Marino – Sergachev4:52
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Durzi7:59
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).