Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 7, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 37 | 29 | 729 |
| EDM | 210 | 017 | 115 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 6:15MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jesper Wallstedt · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 8:01EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 19:24MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 0:35MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 12:29MINQuinn HughesGWGAssists: Brock Faber · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 15:40MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Marcus Foligno, Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 9:42MINTyler PitlickAssists: Yakov Trenin, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–2
- P3 12:43EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Darnell Nurse, Josh Samanski · Snap, 0.22 xG6–3
- P3 14:17MINBrock FaberAssists: Matt Boldy, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:59EDMCurtis Lazar: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:48EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:12MINYakov Trenin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:15EDMZach Hyman: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40MINBrock Faber: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:01
xG 1.55–0.51 (75%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Tarasenko – Hinostroza – Yurov5:58
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Yurov4:29
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Hinostroza – Trenin4:45
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber21:37
xG 2.23–1.54 (59%)attempts 32–28goals 4–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:32
xG 0.66–0.87 (43%)attempts 16–25goals 0–2
- Hunt – Jiricek11:15
xG 0.20–1.21 (14%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:46
xG 1.04–0.29 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Roslovic – Savoie – Samanski9:39
xG 0.77–0.04 (95%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin3:39
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen – Podkolzin6:22
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:34
xG 2.35–1.29 (65%)attempts 37–21goals 2–2
- Emberson – Stastney11:11
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Nurse – Walman19:18
xG 0.94–1.30 (42%)attempts 29–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).