Sat, Jan 31, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 25 | 010 | 17 | 322 |
| VGK | 08 | 210 | 011 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Ryan Winterton, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 13:04SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 8:52VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Jack Eichel, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 19:48VGKMitch MarnerPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:18SEAKaapo KakkoGWGAssists: Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:51VGKAlexander Holtz: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:52VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:37SEARyker Evans: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:27SEAVince Dunn: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marner won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Wright11:08
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers13:27
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Winterton10:28
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Melanson8:41
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:29
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Lindgren – Evans12:29
xG 0.61–0.57 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Montour15:45
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Bowman8:19
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Rondbjerg10:44
xG 0.38–0.18 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Marner – Dorofeyev6:48
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel5:11
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Theodore5:11
xG 0.72–0.08 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hutton – Korczak10:02
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson18:05
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).