Sun, Feb 1, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 04 | 04 | 25 | 00 | 213 |
| CAR | 14 | 014 | 113 | 13 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 12:57CARAlexander NikishinUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 13:21LAKSamuel HeleniusAssists: Jeff Malott, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 16:49LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 1:25CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:32CARJordan Martinook: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:21LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:01LAKCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:01LAKCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:01CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:39LAKJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:19CARTaylor Hall: Embellishment2 min
- P2 9:19LAKBrandt Clarke: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:20LAKBrandt Clarke: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46LAKCorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Fiala – Byfield – Kuzmenko9:30
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Malott – Helenius – Ward6:17
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Armia – Moore7:47
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe2:33
xG 0.01–0.29 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Clarke4:29
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Edmundson5:35
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Clarke2:05
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Ehlers11:47
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:34
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Kotkaniemi6:19
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake10:06
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield16:13
xG 0.86–0.43 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin11:37
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Walker – Miller14:05
xG 0.79–0.66 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).