Mon, Feb 2, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 19 | 15 | 01 | 320 |
| MIN | 26 | 07 | 19 | 12 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Johansson, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:48MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Quinn Hughes, Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:08MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 19:43MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Lane Hutson, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:12MTLKirby DachAssists: Nick Suzuki, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:05MINBrock FaberAssists: Marcus Johansson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:38MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:55MTLOliver Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:53MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:14MINZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:34MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov10:13
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:55
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Evans – Veleno – Bolduc7:12
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield13:52
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson5:09
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Carrier – Guhle3:59
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson13:59
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:19
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 2–1
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov12:01
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Hinostroza – Sturm6:32
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov14:05
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Spurgeon5:57
xG 0.37–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton8:54
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Hughes – Faber21:04
xG 1.04–0.78 (57%)attempts 24–20goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).