Mon, Feb 2, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 5, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 214 | 314 | 06 | 534 |
| NSH | 19 | 211 | 38 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53STLJake NeighboursAssists: Justin Faulk, Tyler Tucker · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:16NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:24STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 0:45STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 3:23STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 3:55STLColton ParaykoAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–1
- P2 11:35NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Michael Bunting, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.04 xG5–2
- P2 13:49NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 2:02NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Justin Barron, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–4
- P3 7:14NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 10:23NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Luke Evangelista · Poke, 0.08 xG5–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:04STLTyler Tucker: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:04NSHAndreas Englund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41NSHSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:57STLBrayden Schenn: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours10:01
xG 1.19–0.19 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 3–1
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Dvorsky12:21
xG 0.83–0.54 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Suter – Berggren8:57
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Toropchenko4:58
xG 0.11–0.50 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker15:08
xG 1.27–0.14 (90%)attempts 24–8goals 2–2
- Fowler – Mailloux12:08
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler3:03
xG 0.19–0.57 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Bunting – Smith5:30
xG 0.90–0.06 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista8:26
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 3–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg4:47
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Jost – Wood4:11
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Blankenburg12:28
xG 1.14–0.29 (79%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Englund – Wilsby2:20
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Perbix – Wilsby14:31
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).