Mon, Feb 2, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 29 | 19 | 01 | 327 |
| DAL | 08 | 29 | 19 | 12 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:48DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:26WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 3:58WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 15:13DALNils LundkvistAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 12:17DALMikko RantanenAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 18:17WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:05DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:22DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:21DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:39WPGJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31DALMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:34WPGLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P2 12:20WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:43WPGJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti9:45
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Koepke3:56
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Iafallo – Barron2:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi2:30
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Samberg2:52
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Samberg – Salomonsson11:25
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:06
xG 0.67–0.81 (45%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Steel11:56
xG 1.08–0.40 (73%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Faksa – Erne – Bäck5:45
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian9:45
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque10:38
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Capobianco9:57
xG 0.86–0.31 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen14:05
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Lundkvist – Harley12:57
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).