Mon, Feb 2, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 2, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 012 | 15 | 225 |
| COL | 08 | 04 | 09 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33DETMarco KasperGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 19:29DETLucas RaymondENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.83 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:38DETMason Appleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:54COLSam Malinski: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:09COLTaylor Makar: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:22DETAlbert Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:29COLValeri Nichushkin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Appleton – Finnie11:52
xG 0.92–0.33 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom7:02
xG 0.29–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat9:57
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper12:40
xG 0.32–0.56 (37%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Sandin-Pellikka10:48
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Seider15:08
xG 0.59–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider3:06
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – Kiviranta11:02
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Olofsson – Colton7:53
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin14:02
xG 0.54–0.55 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Bardakov – Makar – Brindley4:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson11:44
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar15:09
xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Girard – Malinski13:46
xG 0.34–0.86 (29%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).