Tue, Feb 3, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 17 | 110 | 228 |
| PHI | 17 | 16 | 29 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Sanheim, Matvei Michkov · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 4:45PHICarl GrundstromAssists: Nicolas Deslauriers, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 8:12WSHAliaksei ProtasSHAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 2:40WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Justin Sourdif, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 14:37PHIJamie DrysdalePPGWGAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:43PHIRasmus RistolainenENAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:55PHINicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:02WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:59WSHJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P3 14:13WSHJustin Sourdif: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43WSHDylan Strome: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Duhaime – Lapierre4:28
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard5:18
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif5:10
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Dowd – Frank3:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fehérváry5:39
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Chychrun4:44
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin7:10
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Michkov11:55
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Barkey8:06
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Couturier – Grundstrom5:31
xG 0.01–0.32 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Grebenkin9:42
xG 0.05–0.42 (12%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale16:29
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Seeler – Sanheim2:03
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Juulsen10:00
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).