Wed, Feb 4, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 6, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 315 | 17 | 119 | 12 | 643 |
| NSH | 312 | 115 | 17 | 01 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49MINMatt BoldyAssists: Zach Bogosian, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:39MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 9:26NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P1 12:58MINMatt BoldyAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Faber · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 16:45NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P1 18:21NSHErik HaulaAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 0:41NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 16:06MINYakov TreninUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 15:14MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jake Middleton, Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–4
- P3 15:48NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- OT 4:14MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:31NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:16MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:35NSHAdam Wilsby: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:35MINVinnie Hinostroza: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:20MINKirill Kaprizov: Holding2 min
- P2 18:06MINQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:19NSHRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trenin – Yurov10:27
xG 1.50–0.34 (82%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:19
xG 1.04–0.78 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 2–2
- Pitlick – Hinostroza – Sturm6:27
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov14:38
xG 0.46–0.78 (37%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber20:11
xG 2.28–0.65 (78%)attempts 33–15goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Hunt11:37
xG 0.50–0.51 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton14:18
xG 0.47–0.69 (40%)attempts 17–16goals 2–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista13:14
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
- Jost – Schaefer – Wood5:53
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Smith9:38
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg12:10
xG 0.68–1.76 (28%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei22:49
xG 1.31–0.91 (59%)attempts 24–24goals 1–1
- Wilsby – Blankenburg6:30
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Perbix – Wilsby4:03
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).