Wed, Feb 4, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 25 | 05 | 28 | 418 |
| DAL | 112 | 313 | 13 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:37DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:33STLJordan KyrouAssists: Justin Faulk, Tyler Tucker · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 1:55DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Thomas Harley, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 3:58DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 11:57DALJamie BennAssists: Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 11:05STLJimmy SnuggerudUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 15:31STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Philip Broberg, Jimmy Snuggerud · Snap, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 19:37DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:44DALMiro Heiskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 15:03STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:55STLRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:45STLJordan Binnington: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:49DALMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:49STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:49DALMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:14DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:24DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Bourque
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Suter – Snuggerud3:29
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Schenn – Fabbri – Suter2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko3:43
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Toropchenko – Suter – Snuggerud2:19
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTucker – Mailloux2:02
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Broberg – Kessel3:47
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg4:54
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque8:45
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel8:41
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Faksa – Erne – Bäck7:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian7:10
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley9:25
xG 1.73–0.51 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley4:20
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Capobianco – Lundkvist3:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).