Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 111 | 110 | 230 |
| NJD | 012 | 010 | 16 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:10BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P3 10:36BUFPeyton KrebsGWGAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 17:30NJDTimo MeierAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:44BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:35NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:44NJDJonas Siegenthaler: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:44NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:44BUFJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:53NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:27BUFOwen Power: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Doan – Ostlund8:18
xG 0.75–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:23
xG 0.94–0.52 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs11:04
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Kozak7:51
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin13:31
xG 0.75–0.22 (78%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Byram2:20
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesselring2:54
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Gritsyuk – Hameenaho7:46
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer11:44
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Brown – Bratt – Hughes9:26
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Cotter – Tsyplakov6:54
xG 0.51–0.84 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemec13:20
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:23
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Pesce – Kovacevic12:03
xG 0.34–0.87 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).