Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Seattle Kraken 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 110 | 08 | 06 | 124 |
| STL | 111 | 214 | 27 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Pius Suter · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:32SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Shane Wright, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:12STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 1:35STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Pius Suter · Poke, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 1:56STLPius SuterAssists: Dylan Holloway, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 16:59STLDylan HollowayENAssists: Justin Faulk, Jack Finley · Backhand, 0.67 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:59STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48STLCam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:32STLJonatan Berggren: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Finley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Wright12:19
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers11:40
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Catton10:23
xG 0.67–0.86 (44%)attempts 9–15goals 0–3
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers12:34
xG 0.13–0.86 (13%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Montour16:04
xG 1.06–1.19 (47%)attempts 19–17goals 1–3
- Mahura – Evans14:37
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn15:24
xG 0.31–0.79 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours12:52
xG 0.99–0.20 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Berggren – Holloway12:43
xG 1.09–0.45 (71%)attempts 23–8goals 3–0
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Dvorsky11:31
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Walker – Toropchenko – Finley8:03
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg16:31
xG 1.03–0.35 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Faulk – Tucker16:42
xG 1.11–0.70 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Fowler – Mailloux17:19
xG 0.56–0.73 (44%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).