Fri, Feb 27, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 114 | 27 | 03 | 433 |
| ANA | 07 | 117 | 311 | 15 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Cole Perfetti, Dylan Samberg · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:25WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Logan Stanley · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 19:19ANAJacob TroubaAssists: Tim Washe · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 1:27WPGElias SalomonssonAssists: Adam Lowry, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 6:32ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Beckett Sennecke · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 9:59ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Drew Helleson · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 16:50ANARyan PoehlingAssists: Alex Killorn, Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 18:38WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Cole Perfetti, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 4:47ANAChris KreiderGWGAssists: Beckett Sennecke · Backhand, 0.33 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:51WPGLogan Stanley: Holding2 min
- P1 11:19ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:19WPGLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:09ANAOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:38ANAPavel Mintyukov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:30ANAOlen Zellweger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:36WPGTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:38ANATim Washe: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Iafallo – Perfetti10:05
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Lowry – Pearson – Barron2:24
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Namestnikov2:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke5:16
xG 0.06–0.44 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Salomonsson13:54
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Schenn – Heinola8:08
xG 0.64–0.95 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Stanley17:12
xG 0.65–1.11 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHarkins – Viel – Poehling3:18
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Viel – McTavish – Sennecke4:41
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Sennecke2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Viel – Poehling – Sennecke2:45
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – LaCombe13:33
xG 1.27–0.35 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Gudas – Zellweger9:05
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov12:02
xG 0.29–1.06 (22%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).