Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 016 | 15 | 127 |
| PHI | 07 | 03 | 37 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:41PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P3 11:55PHIJamie DrysdaleGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 13:03BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Pavel Zacha · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:07PHISean CouturierENAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:08BOSNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:33BOSTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:33PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:11BOSMason Lohrei: Holding2 min
- P1 19:44PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:30PHINicolas Deslauriers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:36PHICam York: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:38
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic6:10
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eyssimont – Khusnutdinov – Minten7:18
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie12:58
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Aspirot9:53
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy6:28
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Lohrei9:39
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Zegras9:55
xG 1.06–0.64 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Grebenkin8:54
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Grundstrom5:18
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Michkov9:02
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Andrae13:20
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- York – Drysdale12:58
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim17:00
xG 0.66–0.77 (46%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).