Sat, Feb 28, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 4, San Jose Sharks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 17 | 28 | 424 |
| SJS | 314 | 013 | 26 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:34SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:07SJSMichael MisaPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 14:51EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 17:05SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Zack Ostapchuk, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 15:49EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 2:54EDMTrent FredericAssists: Matt Savoie · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 5:30SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 7:13EDMJake WalmanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 9:27SJSShakir MukhamadullinGWGAssists: William Eklund, Michael Misa · Slap, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:51SJSKiefer Sherwood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:39EDMSpencer Stastney: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:16SJSPhilipp Kurashev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:10EDMKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:48SJSVincent Desharnais: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ostapchuk won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Roslovic – Savoie4:15
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:13
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid7:30
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 2–4
- Roslovic – Frederic – Savoie4:47
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:46
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Emberson – Stastney13:44
xG 0.62–0.95 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Nurse – Walman17:02
xG 0.38–1.24 (24%)attempts 16–23goals 1–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSherwood – Smith – Celebrini13:29
xG 1.79–0.42 (81%)attempts 27–10goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Eklund – Misa8:10
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Ostapchuk – Regenda7:32
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Graf10:29
xG 0.13–0.75 (15%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg15:56
xG 1.31–0.62 (68%)attempts 27–12goals 2–2
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin16:13
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Orlov – Desharnais2:55
xG 0.02–0.02 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).