Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 05 | 06 | 115 |
| COL | 014 | 110 | 211 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 19:51COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:31COLGavin BrindleyGWGAssists: Sam Malinski, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:33COLCale MakarENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:10COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:12CHIColton Dach: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:58COLRoss Colton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:05CHIConnor Bedard: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:30CHIAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:46CHIOliver Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:37COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Bertuzzi – Mikheyev7:35
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev2:13
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Donato – Dach4:57
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Nazar – Moore6:20
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Grzelcyk3:23
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic4:31
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Korchinski4:11
xG 0.11–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Colton – Drury4:43
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin9:27
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Kelly2:33
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas13:18
xG 0.47–0.82 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar10:29
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Malinski3:57
xG 0.31–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kulak – Makar2:01
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).