Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 217 | 15 | 333 |
| STL | 012 | 06 | 18 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:37NJDTimo MeierAssists: Brett Pesce, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 19:44NJDDougie HamiltonPPGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Jacob Markstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 18:42STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 19:55NJDNico HischierENAssists: Jesper Bratt, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:08NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:16STLMatthew Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:00NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:13STLJack Finley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:24NJDJack Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorsky won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer11:10
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Hughes – Gritsyuk8:59
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Bratt – Glass – Hameenaho10:28
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Cotter – Tsyplakov6:25
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes13:06
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Dillon – Nemec12:51
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec2:23
xG 0.04–0.01 (76%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Snuggerud – Dvorsky6:14
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Walker – Toropchenko – Finley5:44
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Berggren – Holloway6:08
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Berggren – Dvorsky4:59
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTucker – Kessel12:35
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg14:58
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Fowler – Mailloux17:30
xG 0.30–1.11 (21%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).