Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vancouver Canucks 1, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 19 | 010 | 128 |
| SEA | 210 | 18 | 27 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36SEAVince DunnAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:20SEAChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Adam Larsson, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 8:28VANLiam OhgrenAssists: Conor Garland, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 13:47SEAJordan EberleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 11:56SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 17:00SEAJordan EberleENAssists: Jared McCann, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 9:37SEARyker Evans: Holding2 min
- P2 17:29SEAKaapo Kakko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:29VANFilip Hronek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00SEAJared McCann: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:46VANDrew O'Connor: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:46VANDrew O'Connor: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:22VANPierre-Olivier Joseph: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKampf – Karlsson – Hoglander2:40
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Karlsson – Hoglander4:48
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Blueger – Garland – Ohgren9:21
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Kampf6:19
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Pettersson5:19
xG 0.24–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson10:02
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Joseph – Buium6:16
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Melanson – Meyers9:33
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen10:17
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:52
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Kakko – Wright – Catton11:17
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn14:48
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Fleury – Evans11:46
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour17:09
xG 0.79–1.49 (35%)attempts 15–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).