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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 1, 2026·Delta Center, Salt Lake City

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Utah Mammoth 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.

UTA winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI1132916428
UTA0801004022

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:05CHITeuvo TeravainenPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:38CHINick FolignoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:07CHILandon SlaggertAssists: Oliver Moore, Artyom Levshunov · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
  4. P3 1:25CHITeuvo TeravainenSHAssists: Alex Vlasic, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 5:48UTAIan Cole: Kneeing2 min
  2. P1 11:17UTAClayton Keller: Embellishment2 min
  3. P1 11:17CHITyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 11:41UTALawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 18:22UTANate Schmidt: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P1 19:52CHINick Foligno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P3 1:08CHILouis Crevier: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 19:02UTASean Durzi: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0UTA
47% to win53% to win
← CHI attackUTA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Dickinson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIUTA
28Shots on goal22
2.4Expected goals2.3
48Shot attempts51
19Faceoffs won37
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes18
10Hits21
13Blocked shots10
12Giveaways19
9Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestFoligno – Slaggert – Moore5:46

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 2–0

  2. Dickinson – Bertuzzi – Mikheyev10:47

    xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  3. Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard11:12

    xG 0.56–0.79 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0

  4. Teravainen – Donato – Nazar8:37

    xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMurphy – Korchinski8:38

    xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0

  2. Grzelcyk – Levshunov10:15

    xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0

  3. Vlasic – Levshunov3:00

    xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Utah Mammoth

Forward lines

  1. bestYamamoto – Peterka – Cooley4:46

    xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0

  2. Yamamoto – Hayton – Peterka7:01

    xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  3. Crouse – Carcone – McBain2:13

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  4. Schmaltz – Keller – Guenther5:00

    xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSchmidt – Marino15:04

    xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1

  2. Cole – Maatta12:29

    xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1

  3. Sergachev – Durzi17:03

    xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

UTA 2.3 xGCHI 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

UTACHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1249 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.69 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50UTA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.

UTA winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (UTA − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).