Mon, Mar 2, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 29 | 09 | 11 | 529 |
| NYR | 04 | 012 | 417 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Denton Mateychuk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:32CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:27CBJSean MonahanSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 11:54CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Charlie Coyle, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 0:30NYRVladislav GavrikovAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Will Cuylle · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 0:54NYRGabe PerreaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 12:52NYRWill BorgenAssists: Gabe Perreault, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 15:14NYRGabe PerreaultAssists: Will Borgen, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 1:04CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 14:34NYRGabe Perreault: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWood – Lundeström – Voronkov8:33
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Heinen13:53
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli15:22
xG 0.67–0.96 (41%)attempts 19–17goals 1–2
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger12:44
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFabbro – Zamula12:01
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Mateychuk17:24
xG 0.80–0.82 (49%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk2:15
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle15:58
xG 1.16–0.12 (91%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Perreault14:25
xG 0.91–0.49 (65%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Carrick – Raddysh – Brisson6:43
xG 0.16–0.19 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Sheary – Kartye – Laba9:50
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Schneider16:04
xG 1.16–0.58 (67%)attempts 24–15goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Fox21:49
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
- Robertson – Iorio13:10
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).