Mon, Mar 2, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 214 | 16 | 431 |
| NSH | 111 | 16 | 013 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51DETEmmitt FinnieAssists: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 17:02NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:10NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 9:45DETLucas RaymondAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 16:36DETAlbert JohanssonSHGWGAssists: Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton · Slap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:32DETAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.83 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:13DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:57NSHJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:03DETMason Appleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:43NSHErik Haula: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAppleton – Kasper – Finnie8:47
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kane – Larkin – Rasmussen11:08
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Raymond12:54
xG 0.76–1.10 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Shine6:43
xG 0.05–0.53 (8%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Bernard-Docker15:21
xG 0.92–0.65 (58%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka10:21
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Johansson2:15
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Marchessault11:34
xG 1.32–0.59 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Jost – L'Heureux – Wood7:26
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Forsberg – Evangelista9:46
xG 0.05–0.63 (7%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Smith6:58
xG 0.14–0.85 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Perbix11:11
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Hague – Blankenburg5:18
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Skjei – Perbix2:33
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).