Mon, Mar 2, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 014 | 216 | 439 |
| LAK | 18 | 15 | 08 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:13COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Brent Burns, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 17:20LAKBrandt ClarkePPAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:32LAKAngus BoothAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 15:05COLDevon ToewsGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 19:58COLMartin NecasENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:14COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00LAKBrandt Clarke: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00COLParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25LAKBrandt Clarke: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turcotte won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Necas15:41
xG 1.56–0.26 (86%)attempts 30–12goals 3–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Olofsson4:51
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin3:08
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Bardakov3:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar19:16
xG 1.19–0.40 (75%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
- Kulak – Malinski15:12
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson15:15
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Connors – Wright2:27
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Turcotte – Connors – Wright4:49
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Malott – Helenius – Ward8:28
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Foegele – Turcotte – Laferriere2:49
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dumoulin – Booth11:00
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke16:05
xG 0.35–0.78 (31%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
- Ceci – Clarke2:13
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).