Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 1, New Jersey Devils 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 07 | 02 | 121 |
| NJD | 110 | 211 | 212 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Connor Brown · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:37FLAAnton LundellAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Uvis Balinskis · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:35NJDDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:13NJDCody GlassAssists: Lenni Hameenaho, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 16:23NJDDawson MercerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
- P3 19:20NJDSimon NemecENAssists: Connor Brown, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:29NJDBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:29FLAEetu Luostarinen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:29NJDBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:15NJDLuke Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:15FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:07NJDBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:07NJDBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:47FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:26FLABrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P2 12:48FLABrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Rodrigues – Luostarinen5:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Samoskevich2:55
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell3:28
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich4:19
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis5:17
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Bjornfot – Balinskis7:59
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Bjornfot3:58
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Cotter – Tsyplakov6:10
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bratt – Glass – Hameenaho9:49
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Brown – Hughes – Gritsyuk11:09
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer10:13
xG 0.45–0.66 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler11:52
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Dillon – Nemec11:14
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pesce3:33
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).