Tue, Mar 3, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 010 | 15 | 00 | 219 |
| WPG | 16 | 07 | 117 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59WPGDylan SambergAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 18:48CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Frank Nazar, Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 0:32CHIRyan GreeneAssists: Connor Bedard, Sam Rinzel · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:21WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:06WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:57WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:10CHISam Rinzel: Holding2 min
- P1 17:54WPGGabriel Vilardi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:07CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Greene – Bedard9:47
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Slaggert – Moore7:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Bertuzzi – Mikheyev8:29
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Donato – Nazar11:26
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Mastro – Rinzel10:17
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Rinzel5:58
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Del Mastro – Levshunov4:43
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo9:47
xG 1.73–0.50 (78%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Duehr6:57
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke5:23
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti6:09
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Salomonsson12:16
xG 1.65–0.25 (87%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg8:08
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Samberg2:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).