Wed, Mar 4, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 117 | 013 | 013 | 143 |
| ANA | 312 | 04 | 210 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 12:56ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:05ANACutter GauthierGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 18:40ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Mason McTavish, Ian Moore · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 2:11ANARyan PoehlingAssists: Ryan Strome · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 15:49ANAFrank VatranoENAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:00NYIMatthew Schaefer: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:27ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:14NYITony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:15ANAPavel Mintyukov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:48NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:31ANACutter Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:43ANAMason McTavish: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:57NYIMathew Barzal: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb8:18
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Horvat – Barzal8:22
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom7:09
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Drouin – Heineman – Ritchie7:16
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Schaefer2:20
xG 0.88–0.35 (72%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Pelech – Boqvist2:27
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – Schaefer3:52
xG 0.04–0.05 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – McTavish – Sennecke6:03
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Poehling7:24
xG 0.34–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Vatrano – McTavish – Sennecke2:06
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Gauthier – Carlsson9:46
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Mintyukov9:38
xG 0.69–0.03 (96%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Gudas – Zellweger12:46
xG 1.10–0.46 (71%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Trouba – LaCombe10:47
xG 0.45–1.13 (29%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).