Wed, Mar 4, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
St. Louis Blues 3, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 15 | 18 | 327 |
| SEA | 110 | 010 | 116 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:50STLLogan MaillouxAssists: Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:40STLDylan HollowayAssists: Cam Fowler, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 1:33STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 13:34SEAVince DunnAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:41SEABerkly Catton: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:31STLPius Suter: Holding2 min
- P2 6:16SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:04STLAlexey Toropchenko: Holding2 min
- P3 17:54STLJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Finley won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Thomas – Snuggerud10:09
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Finley8:11
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Holloway – Dvorsky10:58
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours10:26
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Mailloux17:36
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Tucker – Kessel8:55
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg17:39
xG 0.75–1.16 (39%)attempts 16–22goals 1–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:10
xG 0.72–0.21 (78%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Kakko – Wright – Catton8:40
xG 0.40–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Melanson – Meyers10:04
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen9:58
xG 0.25–1.05 (19%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn13:29
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Montour17:18
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).