Thu, Mar 5, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 3, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 16 | 28 | 323 |
| NSH | 18 | 417 | 14 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:53NSHNicolas HagueAssists: Ozzy Wiesblatt, Fedor Svechkov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:24NSHMatthew WoodSHAssists: Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 3:30BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:18NSHErik HaulaAssists: Brady Skjei, Steven Stamkos · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 12:37NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Ufko · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 14:44NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 6:05BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 15:32BOSViktor ArvidssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 17:33NSHLuke EvangelistaENAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:59BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:58NSHErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18NSHMatthew Wood: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:18BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:59NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:26NSHNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53BOSTanner Jeannot: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44BOSMichael Eyssimont: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:33BOSMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:51BOSMarat Khusnutdinov: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:55NSHFedor Svechkov: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Wood
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt8:36
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov6:08
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie4:19
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Eyssimont – Geekie – Minten4:17
xG 0.13–0.20 (38%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy5:36
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Lohrei4:33
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy8:19
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – Evangelista – Wood7:29
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Jost – L'Heureux – Kemell5:29
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Wiesblatt – Svechkov – Schaefer7:14
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Haula – Marchessault8:18
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Barron2:12
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hague – Perbix3:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Hague – Ufko2:09
xG 0.11–0.08 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).