Thu, Mar 5, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 120 | 210 | 335 |
| LAK | 119 | 210 | 26 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17LAKArtemi PanarinAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 14:20LAKSamuel HeleniusAssists: Jeff Malott, Taylor Ward · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 15:51LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Drew Doughty, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 19:59NYIBo HorvatAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 2:30LAKAlex LaferrierePPGWGAssists: Brandt Clarke, Darcy Kuemper · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 4:30NYIAdam PelechSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 8:30LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Brandt Clarke, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 18:01NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:56NYICarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:20LAKCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:48LAKCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:00LAKAlex Turcotte: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23NYIOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:40NYIIlya Sorokin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb5:20
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom7:47
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Drouin – Heineman – Ritchie6:12
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Horvat – Barzal9:42
xG 0.99–1.17 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer4:17
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo11:09
xG 0.90–0.83 (52%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Pelech – Schaefer2:00
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Connors – Wright4:58
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Panarin12:18
xG 0.85–0.68 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Malott – Helenius – Ward6:07
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Turcotte – Laferriere8:25
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson14:56
xG 1.31–1.00 (57%)attempts 20–24goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci10:05
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Clarke10:19
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).