Fri, Mar 6, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 5, Anaheim Ducks 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 24 | 014 | 36 | 04 | 1 | 528 |
| ANA | 212 | 113 | 28 | 00 | 2 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39ANACutter GauthierAssists: Leo Carlsson, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 1:01MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 3:33MTLLane HutsonPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 11:56ANARadko GudasAssists: Frank Vatrano, Ryan Poehling · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 12:15ANAJackson LaCombePPAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 0:35ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Chris Kreider, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 8:41MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 11:47MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Jake Evans, Zachary Bolduc · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 13:04MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 19:18ANAChris KreiderAssists: Jacob Trouba, Jackson LaCombe · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. ANA Leo Carlsson stopped
- 2. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 3. ANA Beckett Sennecke stopped
- 4. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 5. ANA Mason McTavish stopped
- 6. MTL Kirby Dach stopped
- 7. ANA Cutter Gauthier scored
- 8. MTL Ivan Demidov scored
- 9. ANA Chris Kreider stopped
- 10. ANA Alex Killorn scored
- 11. MTL Oliver Kapanen stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:53ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:37MTLAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:43ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P2 6:54ANAJacob Trouba: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:03MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 2:59ANAOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Dach – Bolduc11:48
xG 0.71–0.17 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:04
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov7:24
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:15
xG 0.63–1.03 (38%)attempts 16–18goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson13:16
xG 1.15–0.73 (61%)attempts 26–11goals 3–1
- Matheson – Dobson4:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dobson – Guhle2:49
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Gauthier – Carlsson11:50
xG 1.17–0.43 (73%)attempts 25–10goals 2–1
- Killorn – Poehling – Sennecke10:24
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Killorn – McTavish – Sennecke3:36
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Johnston – Viel – Washe9:03
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – LaCombe20:48
xG 1.53–0.64 (70%)attempts 22–16goals 2–2
- Moore – Mintyukov11:33
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Gudas – Zellweger14:04
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).