Fri, Mar 6, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 13 | 19 | 01 | 11 | 314 |
| SJS | 011 | 16 | 18 | 00 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 14:31SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 17:46STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 13:26SJSKiefer SherwoodAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Collin Graf · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:54STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:29SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:29STLDylan Holloway: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:29SJSMario Ferraro: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:17STLMatthew Kessel: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:34SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:34STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:19SJSZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:27STLJonatan Berggren: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud11:55
xG 1.06–0.33 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Finley7:46
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Suter – Neighbours4:54
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours3:54
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Tucker9:07
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Tucker – Broberg7:14
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Broberg2:19
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSherwood – Kurashev – Graf4:04
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Misa9:29
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Smith – Celebrini5:44
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk6:50
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg13:49
xG 0.92–0.65 (59%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Dickinson12:56
xG 0.66–0.43 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin18:21
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).