Sat, Mar 7, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 1, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 19 | 07 | 123 |
| BOS | 08 | 113 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:07BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak · Bat, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 7:21WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Ryan Leonard · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 4:28BOSViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:36BOSElias LindholmENAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:43WSHJustin Sourdif: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:49BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 10:33WSHAliaksei Protas: Holding2 min
- P2 1:17BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 3:36WSHJustin Sourdif: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:43WSHBrandon Duhaime: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:24WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:54BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P2 19:41WSHEthen Frank: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas6:58
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier4:13
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank4:21
xG 0.16–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McMichael – Sourdif – Leonard4:35
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun4:45
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Chychrun – Sandin8:11
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Chisholm5:04
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt6:46
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov9:17
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Geekie – Steeves – Minten7:03
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic9:07
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Peeke13:29
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot10:27
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Lohrei10:49
xG 0.67–0.84 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).