Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Utah Mammoth 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 111 | 15 | 28 | 11 | 525 |
| CBJ | 16 | 111 | 213 | 01 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:25CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathieu Olivier · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:12UTADylan GuentherAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick DeSimone · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:03CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Charlie Coyle, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 3:00UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Michael Carcone, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 4:54UTALogan CooleyAssists: Lawson Crouse, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 13:38CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Mason Marchment, Kirill Marchenko · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 14:08CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 2:08UTALogan CooleyGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, John Marino · Slap, 0.28 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P2 5:57UTADylan Guenther: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:27CBJMathieu Olivier: Instigator2 min
- P3 14:27UTAKevin Stenlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:27CBJCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:27CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:27CBJDamon Severson: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:27UTAAlexander Kerfoot: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:27UTAIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:27CBJMathieu Olivier: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 14:27CBJMathieu Olivier: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:23UTABarrett Hayton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Guenther13:57
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Crouse – McBain – Cooley3:18
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Yamamoto – Hayton – Peterka2:37
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Yamamoto – Hayton – McBain7:26
xG 0.08–0.27 (24%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeSimone13:23
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Weegar – Durzi17:37
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Marino15:03
xG 0.67–1.68 (29%)attempts 11–27goals 1–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:29
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli15:45
xG 1.10–0.63 (64%)attempts 23–11goals 2–0
- Jenner – Wood – Lundeström8:24
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Monahan – Garland – Johnson12:55
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk14:19
xG 1.13–0.33 (78%)attempts 24–6goals 2–2
- Gudbranson – Zamula9:58
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski19:11
xG 0.92–0.94 (50%)attempts 29–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).