Sat, Mar 7, 2026·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Montréal Canadiens 4, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 01 | 211 | 211 | 423 |
| LAK | 116 | 110 | 113 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:12LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:09MTLJake EvansAssists: Kirby Dach, Zachary Bolduc · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 15:41MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 17:31LAKScott LaughtonAssists: Jared Wright, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:44LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Brandt Clarke, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 14:38MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 15:27MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:14MTLKaiden Guhle: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:59MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:12MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:07LAKTrevor Moore: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:59
xG 0.86–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson8:09
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Evans – Dach – Bolduc11:42
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov10:23
xG 0.23–0.76 (23%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson9:33
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Guhle – Hutson3:58
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson3:03
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Panarin14:31
xG 0.91–0.25 (78%)attempts 22–5goals 1–0
- Laughton – Turcotte – Wright8:34
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Malott – Helenius – Ward5:07
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Moore – Byfield – Laferriere14:09
xG 0.59–1.14 (34%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke16:25
xG 0.94–0.16 (85%)attempts 24–9goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci12:19
xG 0.86–0.59 (59%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Doughty – Anderson17:53
xG 0.67–1.20 (36%)attempts 17–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).