Sat, Mar 7, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 010 | 014 | 12 | 234 |
| SJS | 08 | 110 | 09 | 04 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37NYITony DeAngeloAssists: Calum Ritchie · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:33SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 4:20NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:16NYIMatthew Schaefer: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:22SJSDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:06SJSCollin Graf: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:15SJSKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Cizikas – Duclair – Gatcomb6:38
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom10:15
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Heineman14:03
xG 0.67–0.71 (49%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Palat – Ritchie10:13
xG 0.20–0.79 (20%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock2:04
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo14:36
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Soucy9:37
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Graf14:13
xG 1.14–0.82 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Misa9:51
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Gaudette – Sherwood11:31
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk4:30
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg15:21
xG 0.98–0.77 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson12:49
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin15:05
xG 0.29–0.78 (28%)attempts 7–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).