Mon, Mar 9, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 2, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 19 | 17 | 224 |
| VAN | 04 | 09 | 03 | 016 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:11OTTRidly GreigGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 18:40OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:58VANElias Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:58OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:01VANLinus Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:11VANNils Hoglander: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:21VANMarcus Pettersson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:31OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P3 13:44OTTWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:03
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:43
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:29
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund5:38
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven11:42
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo12:08
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub14:24
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – O'Connor – Rossi2:07
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Douglas – O'Connor – Räty5:23
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – Rossi – Ohgren6:38
xG 0.07–0.12 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Hoglander8:34
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Buium5:02
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson10:06
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Mancini – Buium10:29
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).