Tue, Mar 10, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 0, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 09 | 03 | 021 |
| NYR | 19 | 212 | 18 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:27NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 10:28NYRConor ShearyAssists: Tye Kartye, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 16:31NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Gabe Perreault, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 17:42NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Gabe Perreault, Urho Vaakanainen · Slap, 0.15 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:43CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:12CGYDustin Wolf: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 16:28CGYOlli Maatta: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:24NYRGabe Perreault: Holding2 min
- P3 3:38NYRJuuso Parssinen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laba won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Sharangovich – Coronato4:53
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Pospisil – Klapka7:42
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee3:53
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato7:39
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Bahl16:54
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Parekh12:51
xG 0.50–1.02 (33%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Hanley – Pachal14:25
xG 0.17–0.91 (16%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault13:06
xG 1.32–0.28 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Cuylle12:15
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Sheary – Kartye – Laba10:24
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Parssinen – Edstrom – Chmelar6:22
xG 0.09–0.44 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Schneider14:43
xG 1.17–0.28 (80%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Fox15:27
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Borgen – Vaakanainen10:45
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).